Strong to SEVERE storms could return this weekend

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – Rain will be limited for most of the ArkLaTex during the next several days.  That could change for much of the area this weekend, as strong to possibly severe storms threaten the northern edge of the area starting Saturday night.

Late this week, a large upper-level ridge will set up over the Lower Mississippi Valley. The northern part of the ArkLaTex will be on the northern edge of this ridge.  This may allow for some storms to graze the northern edge of the area.  As of right now, the Storm Prediction Center indicates that we will have a level 2 slight severe weather risk on Saturday night.  Damaging winds will be our main concern if we see any severe weather. That risk will shift to the south on Sunday and possibly Monday.  

Yesterday, I put my level of worry at 3 out of 10.  Given that there is decent model agreement that storms will impact our area Saturday night, I will raise my worry level to 4 out of 10 for the northern third of the area, mainly in NE TX, SW AR, and SE OK.  Storms will remain possible through next week, but given inconsistencies from model to model in the long-range, I’d put my worry level at 3 out of 10 for the rest of the 10-day period.  

We will also see the potential for heavy rain in scattered locations.  The latest runs of the models regarding rainfall potential are similar to yesterday’s runs through the first half of next week.  With the threat of rain expected to continue through most of next week, the Blend of Models shows that most of the ArkLaTex will see at least 2” of rain from now through next Friday. Note that since we will be dealing with a bunch of smaller-scale disturbances, we likely will see adjustments to future outlooks. Stay Tuned!!