Tornado Watch issued. Severe threat and flash flood risk ramps up overnight.

NEW ORLEANS — A Tornado Watch has been issued from Lafayette to Baton Rouge to sections of the Northshore until 1AM.

The Storm Prediction Center has increased the severe risk to an Enhanced(Level 3 out of 5) for the areas highlighted in orange, Slight(Level 2 out of 5) for the areas in yellow. Damaging winds, large hail & isolated tornado potential.

The bigger concern will be the threat for flash flooding. But, a few questions remain regarding the forecast:

Storms or Submerged? We know the rain is coming, the big question remains WHERE will the heaviest bands of rain set up?

Widespread 2-4″ of rain expected across the Central Gulf Coast over the next 48 hours. However, locations could easily double that if “training” bands of thunderstorms develop overnight Tuesday-Wednesday. Hot spots of 6-8+” of rain possible. Similarly, cool spots of only 1-3″ possible.

Right now, the highest confidence for more significant totals is across southwest Louisiana into Acadiana. But, don’t take any specific model run as gospel. The bullseye of heaviest rain could easily shift ~50 miles or more.

Stay weather aware! Elevated rain chances and localized flash flood threat continues through Friday.