Sunday SEVERE storms: Where, when, & how bad

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) –  Strong to severe storms are still looking promising for part of the ArkLaTex.  It still appears that the storms will be strongest Sunday evening over the south half of the area with the biggest threats being large hail and damaging wind. 

SPC Outlook:  Today’s severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has reduced the size of the ‘Slight’ risk area.  In the green area on the above map, the severe risk is looking very low as any severe weather issues will be isolated. In the yellow area, the risk will be a little higher and any issues will be more scattered.   

Where, when, & how bad: All hi-res models including Futurecast show that the storms probably won’t begin to fire up until early Sunday evening after 5 pm.  They also show that the severe weather risk will probably be highest southeast of a line from El Dorado, to Shreveport, to Carthage.  We could have scattered reports of quarter to half-dollar-sized hail and wind gusts of over 60 mph in these areas.  The tornado risk is looking very low at this point, but it is not zero.  Futurecast shows a chance for a few rotating storms south of Interstate 20.  The storms will probably begin to weaken by 9 pm.

How much rain?  Rain will be very limited for most of the area with amounts of below ¼”.  Futurecast shows that areas south of I-20 that see the strongest storms could receive 1 to 2” of rain.

10-Day Forecast: Your 10-day forecast shows that we will see above-normal temperatures throughout the period.  Highs most days will be in the 80s with a few days in the mid to upper 70s.  Overnight lows will mainly be in the 50s. Strong to severe storms will be possible on Sunday evening.  We could see more rain with some thunder Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and a final chance of rain from Friday through Saturday morning.