Taste of ‘false fall’ coming to the Big Country

BIG COUNTRY, Texas (KTAB/KRBC) – Heading into the extended forecast, temperatures are likely to dip below normal as a “cold” front moves in, giving us a brief taste of “false fall.” For now, and over the next couple of days, upper-level ridging will keep conditions warmer with near to above average temperatures and little to no rain chances. As we approach the middle of next week, a front is expected to push into Texas, bringing slightly below average temperatures along with low to medium chances for rain.

The Climate Prediction Center placed parts of the Big Country in the below-average temperature range. There is about a 35% chance that Abilene and locations north could see below normal temperatures around this time. This means cooler-than-average temperatures are not guaranteed, but there are indications that at least some relief is possible. But, with average highs this time of year in the mid to upper 90s, conditions will still be warm, just not as hot.

In the Concho Valley, the outlook is slightly different. This region sits in the normal to above-average range, so temperatures are less likely to cool as much, though some relief is still possible. The CPC shows lower confidence here, with probabilities of above-normal temperatures roughly equal to the potential for cooler conditions that are expected in the Big Country.

Rain chances may also help keep temperatures lower around the region, depending on the timing and strength of the front. Forecasting this far out can be tricky, but models show temperatures cooling as early as Wednesday. If this trend continues, confidence in a cooler midweek period will grow.

In Abilene, highs on Wednesday are currently forecast in the upper 80s, several degrees below average, with a 30% of showers and thunderstorms. In San Angelo, highs are also expected to reach the upper 80s with a 30% of precipitation, according to the National Weather Service.

While this front should provide some relief, it is still too early to break out the sweaters! Temperatures will likely warm again a few days later as summer heat holds on, though the overall pattern will slowly weaken as we move closer to fall. Stay updated with the latest forecast for details on cooler temperatures and possible rain!