Watching the Tropics: Low chance for tropical development in Gulf

BATON ROUGE, La. (Louisiana First) — There’s another area to watch now and it’s near part of the Gulf Coast and Southeast coast. The area mainly encompasses the Florida peninsula.

Later this week, a cold front will move south towards the Gulf Coast. It’s expected to weaken and stall in the aforementioned area. An area of low pressure could form from the weakening front.

As of Monday, June 30, there’s a 0% chance of tropical development over the next two days and a 20% chance of tropical development over the next seven days.

There is disagreement between models on where a tropical depression forms if any forms at all.

The GFS Model is showing a possible tropical depression developing in the eastern Gulf and moving westward along the Gulf Coast.

The Euro Model is showing a possible tropical system on the east coast of Florida.

The ICON model is also hinting at something along the west coast of Florida.

One other factor we are taking into consideration is that Saharan Dust is still flowing into our area this week and it suppresses tropical activity. There’s still some uncertainty, but either way, we will have rain throughout this week including afternoon and evening scattered thunderstorms.

Stay tuned for more updates as we continue monitoring this area over the next few days.

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