HEAVY RAIN threat returns by Tuesday!

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – After a perfect three days of weather around the ArkLaTex this weekend and Monday, a threat of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will return to the area on Tuesday.

Timing:  A large upper-level low will move into the Rockies by the beginning of next week.  We will see showers and thunderstorms develop to our west on Monday and head east.  Tuesday, we will see periods of showers and a few thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. The threat of rain will decrease on Wednesday and likely come to an end sometime on Thursday.  

How worried am I about severe weather?  As of right now, it appears that any severe weather threat could be rather isolated.  Our best chance will be on Tuesday, but most models show that instability will be rather limited. That being said, my severe weather concern for the next 10 day is a 3 out of 10.  If you add the rainfall potential to the mix, that 3 becomes a 4.

How much rain?  The Blend of Models shows that all of our area will receive well above-normal rainfall.  It appears that the northern half of the area will see anywhere from two to almost four inches.  Amounts in East Texas and Northwest Louisiana will be in the range of four to over five inches. Obviously, the flooding potential will increase if this rain does occur.  Another concern will be the area lakes and rivers. Very heavy rain has fallen upstream in the Red River basin over the past few days.  Much of that water that is not captured by upstream reservoirs will be headed through the ArkLaTex.  For example, the Red River in Shreveport will be rising and will be near 26 feet on Tuesday when the heavy rain begins.  We will know more about the impact of this rain on lakes and rivers once the final totals come in.  

10-day Outlook:   When it’s not raining, our weather is looking rather pleasant during the next ten days.  Highs will mainly be in the 70s and 80s.  Overnight lows will mainly be in the 50s and 60s.  We should start to warm up a little by the end of the period.