Poll: California’s Prop 50 likely to pass, Republican surges in governor’s race

With less than two weeks before election day, California voters appear poised to pass the state’s redistricting measure, Proposition 50, to counter Republican redistricting efforts in Texas to gain more seats in Congress.

A new Emerson College poll found that 57% of likely California voters support Prop 50, which authorizes temporary changes to the state congressional maps, while 37% oppose it. Six percent are undecided.

“Certain demographic groups that were hesitant to support the measure last month have come around to support Prop 50, such as Black voters, whose support increased from 45% to 71%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

The proposed California U.S. House districts — crafted by Democrats behind closed doors — have been designed to add five Democratic House seats to offset Trump’s moves in Texas to gain five Republican districts before the 2026 midterm elections. That could boost the Democratic margin to 48 of California’s 52 congressional seats, up from the 43 seats the party now holds.

Republicans in Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana are also making moves that could add GOP House seats as well.

Republicans currently hold a 219-213 majority in the U.S. House, with three vacancies.

Republican surges in California governor’s race

Democrat Katie Porter, who has come under fire after two videos surfaced showing her losing her temper, now finds herself in a statistical tie with Republican Steve Hilton for the lead in California’s 2026 gubernatorial race, the survey found.

Hilton, a British-born conservative commentator, gained six points from a mid-September poll and now has 16%, while Porter’s support remained largely unchanged, dropping just one point 16% to 15%. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, has 11%. Democrats Antonio Villarigosa and Xavier Becerra are tied at five percent.

The Emerson College survey, which was conducted Oct. 20-21 and included 900 likely voters, has a margin of error of 3.2%.

Thirty-nine percent of those surveyed are undecided, and several political heavyweights, including developer Rick Caruso and U.S. Senator Alex Padilla, are still reportedly considering entering the governor’s race.

Porter, a Harvard and Yale University graduate who represented Orange County in Congress, has an uphill battle to improve her favorability rating among voters, the poll showed.

Porter is viewed favorably by 26% of respondents, while 35% hold an unfavorable opinion. Steve Hilton has a 21% favorable rating and a 12% unfavorable rating. Chad Bianco is seen favorably by 19%, with 14% expressing an unfavorable view of the sheriff. Senator Alex Padilla holds a 40% favorable rating, compared to 28% unfavorable.

The poll results will be discussed in-depth on this weekend’s Inside California Politics, airing Nexstar television stations in California at the following times:

KTLA: Sunday, June 15 at 5:30 a.m.
KRON: Saturday, June 14 at 6:30 p.m.
KSEE: Saturday, June 14 at 6:30 p.m. and Sunday, June 15 at 8:30 a.m.
KSWB: Sunday, June 15 at 5:30 a.m. and 11:00 p.m.
KGET: Sunday, June 15 at 8:30 a.m.
KTXL: Saturday, June 14 at 11:00 p.m. and Sunday, June 15 at 7:30 a.m.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.