Winter forecast for Minnesota: Colder, snowier than normal, NOAA says

Many across Minnesota and western Wisconsin enjoyed temperatures in the 70s just last week, but everyone knows winter is lurking.

Now, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its 2025-26 winter forecast, and it’s probably not what many in the Midwest were hoping for.

The agency is projecting colder-than-average temperatures for Minnesota and western Wisconsin, plus more snow than usual.

NOAA’s 2025-26 winter temperature outlook. (NOAA)

NOAA’s 2025-26 winter precipitation outlook. (NOAA)

Minnesota’s Weather Authority says that may be the case but it’s worth noting that things can change.

KSTP Meteorologist Chris Reece says NOAA’s forecast is heavily based on the influence of a strong La Niña. However, this year’s La Niña seems to be weaker and may not be as influential.

Reece also noted that the NOAA had a similar forecast for last winter and the Twin Cities got half of its usual snowfall, although it was colder than normal.

Full forecast from Minnesota’s Weather Authority

Average snowfall during a Minnesota winter is just over 51 inches — that’d feel like a lot given the Twin Cities has only gotten around 30 inches each of the past two winters.

While the La Niña may be weaker, Reece says there are other global factors that could influence the region’s winter even more.

“Signs DO point towards a colder and wetter winter this year. That doesn’t mean there won’t be mild spells or dry spells, but implies that the averages of December, January, and February have a slight probability of leaning wetter and colder than average,” Reece said.

With fall weather just recently arriving in Minnesota, hopefully winter is still a ways away. That being said, the average first snowfall for the Twin Cities is the first week of November, and even earlier farther north.
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