The latest on this weekend’s severe weather threat

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – There is a little better agreement in today’s model runs regarding the timing and intensity of Saturday’s storms. The good news is that most models are now showing the storms could begin much earlier in the day on Saturday.

Today’s update from the Storm Prediction Center continues to show a level 2 slight risk for most of the ArkLaTex.  Today’s outlook expands the slight risk area further south.  While most models limit the intensity of the storms, the EURO model has consistently shown storms developing late Saturday afternoon over the northern quarter of the area. The latest run of this model is not quite as intense or widespread with the rain as it now begins the rain earlier in the day on Saturday.  That means Saturday’s severe threat could be more limited, with damaging wind being the main concern. 

The latest rainfall outlook from WPC shows ½ to 1” of rain from these storms.  We will see another disturbance slowly move through the area late next week.  If you add the rain from these two systems together, we could see ten-day rainfall totals of 1 to 2”. 

Weather Worry Index 3 out of 10:  Since models are now in better agreement that Saturday storms could begin earlier in the day, I will keep my level of concern at 3 out of 10.  We will know more about Saturday’s storms later this week when hi-res models start seeing this event.  The key will remain when the rain develops.  The earlier, the better. Stay tuned!