Cold front brings threat of severe storms

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – We will finally catch a break from the heat as a cold front will move through the area Tuesday night and Wednesday.  The price for that break will be some strong to possibly severe storms.  Check back for a live update Tuesday evening at 8:30 pm!

Storm timing: Below is the latest hourly run of the HRRR model that shows thunderstorms developing to the north of the ArkLaTex late Tuesday afternoon.  These storms will slowly move to the south on Tuesday night, arriving over the northern edge of the area between 10 pm and midnight, Texarkana between midnight and 2 am, and the I-20 corridor at around sunrise.  They will continue to move through the southern half of the area on Wednesday morning. The HRRR has been trending more west with the strongest storms and heaviest rain.

Storm threats: The Storm Prediction Center continues to indicate that we will have a marginal to slight severe weather risk.  That risk still looks highest where the storms arrive soonest, over the northern quarter of the area.  Damaging winds and heavy rain will be our biggest threats.  The risk of tornadoes and hail is looking very low, but it is not zero.         

How much rain?  We will probably see a large variation in rainfall totals around the ArkLaTex.  Parts of the area could receive less than ½” of rain.  Much of the area could see totals in the range of two to over four inches. The biggest question remains where that heavy rain will fall. Again, model trends indicate that this could occur over the western half of our area or even further west.   

Cooler air on the way!  Cooler air will invade the area on Wednesday.  After lows on Wednesday morning in the low to middle 70s, daytime highs will only climb into the low to middle 80s.  

Temperatures will likely stay near or below normal through the rest of this week, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.  We will stay dry through the rest of this week and probably all of next week.  Temperatures will likely warm up again next week with highs warming back into the lower 90s.  Overnight lows will warm back into the upper 60s.