Weather Worries:  Details on Tuesday night’s storms

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – Strong to severe storms are looking likely for mainly the northern half of the ArkLaTex late Tuesday evening and Tuesday night.  All severe weather threats will be possible, but our biggest worry will be damaging winds.

Storm timing:  Futurecast shows that storms will develop along a cold front late Tuesday afternoon over Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.  This is where the risk of severe weather will probably be at its highest.  The storms will begin to move south into our area very late Tuesday evening and through the northern half of the area Tuesday night. It appears that they could slowly weaken during the night as they move south.  The storms should move into Texarkana near, or shortly after, midnight.  They will be approaching Shreveport shortly before sunrise on Wednesday morning. They will move out of the southern edge of the area sometime on Wednesday afternoon.

Storm threats: The loop above shows the latest SPC outlooks for Tuesday and Tuesday night. It shows that our biggest concern will be damaging winds of 40 to 60 mph.  This threat will probably be highest near and north of Interstate 30 in SW AR, SE OK, and NE TX in the slight risk (yellow) area.  Hail and perhaps an isolated tornado will also be possible, but those risks will be highest to our north and are looking very low in our area.

How much rain?  Very heavy rain will be possible for parts of the ArkLaTex.  While the latest WPC 7-day outlook shows amounts of ¾ to 1.5”, hi-res models, including Futurecast, show that we could see widespread 2” totals with isolated amounts of 4 to 5” possible.    

Weather Worry Index THREE out of 10:  Given the timing of the storms’ arrival, they will likely be slowly weakening as they move into the northern edge of the ArkLaTex late Tuesday evening. With our main worry probably limited to damaging wind, the WWI for Tuesday night will be 3 out of 10.  Severe weather will be possible on Wednesday over the SE quarter of the area, but if we have any issues, they will be isolated.  Stay tuned for more details as this event gets closer.