Strong Storms to bring potential FLOODING!

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – Waves of thunderstorms will move through the ArkLaTex tonight.  Severe weather will be possible, with damaging winds being the biggest concern.  Another worry will be the potential of flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect.

Storm timing: Thunderstorms that have developed over the ArkLaTex today will gradually spread to the southeast late Thursday afternoon and evening.  Futurecast and other models show additional storms developing over the northern half of the area after midnight Thursday night. They will also move southeast through the area late Thursday night into Friday morning.   

Storm impacts: The Storm Prediction Center indicates that we have a marginal to slight severe risk for most of the area.  The risk could be highest over the NW quarter of the area, especially with storms that develop Thursday afternoon and evening. 

Our main concern will be the potential for damaging winds.  Most storms will produce gusts of 30 to 50 mph. We could see scattered gusts of over 60 mph.  Hail will also be possible, but severe hail of quarter-sized or larger will be very isolated. It now appears that our biggest concern will be heavy rain and the flooding it could bring. 

Rain potential: The latest rainfall potential outlook from WPC indicates that most of the area will likely receive at least three inches of rain.  Amounts of four to six inches will be possible near the Red River in NW Louisiana. 

It is likely that we will see a swath of even more impressive rain totals from now through Friday.  Some locations could see as much as six to eight inches!  The biggest question is where.  The morning run of the HRRR shows the swath across NW LA and extreme SW AR.  Futurecast shows this swath occurring further west in NE TX, closer to Tyler.

While both models have trended more west with the potential location of this swath, I think that Futurecast has probably shifted things a bit too far west. Long story short, all of us should expect to see at least 2-3” of rain, but prepare for any issues that 6 to 8” could cause.  You may want to plan on setting the alarm a bit earlier on Friday morning to check with Josh on any flooding issues that may be developing.

This weekend: Rain will remain possible this weekend, but it will be scattered and much lighter. Right now, I do have a slight chance of rain on Sunday, but I would not be shocked if we stay dry.    Temperatures will be cooler on Friday and this weekend.  Highs will be in the 80s and lows will be in the 60s and lower 70s. Most of next week is looking dry with near or below normal temperatures. We could see another batch of cooler and drier air return late next week. Could lows in the 50s be possible for some? Stay tuned.