Possible tropical depression to bring rain!

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – Weather worries in the ArkLaTex should stay rather low in the next ten days. A possible tropical depression moving west across the northern Gulf could bring rain to most of our area.  Impacts look minimal for our area at this time.

Severe weather worries?  The coming disturbance in the Gulf will bring some scattered storms to mainly the southeast half of the ArkLaTex on Friday and Saturday.  While severe weather can’t be ruled out, the risk is looking very low at this time. 

Tropical worries?  As of this writing, the National Hurricane Center indicates that there is a 40% chance of seeing a tropical depression develop in the Gulf. Intensity models indicate that if this system forms, it will likely not have time to strengthen into a tropical storm.

Most of its biggest impacts with heavy rain will occur to the east of our area.  The Blend of Models shows that 10-day rainfall potential will be highest over the southeast quarter of the area, where 1 to 2” of rain will be possible.  Amounts will be much lighter as you look northwest, with the NW quarter of the area possibly staying dry. Update: The latest 7day outlook from WPC shows one to over 4″ of rain could be possible over the SE half of the ArkLaTex. The graphic below will update as more outlooks are issued.

10-day WWI: Once the tropical disturbance clears our area, we will settle into a dry and rather hot weather pattern next week as upper-level high pressure develops over the southern half of the country.

This will warm temperatures back to near 100 with the heat index possibly surpassing 105.  Even though the risk of severe weather is looking low for our area, I will raise today’s WWI to 3 out of 10, given the trend in the models towards heavier rain for the SE half of the area.    Weather Worry Index for the next 10 days:  3 out of 10.