Wx Worries: Keep an eye on the rain gauge

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – There is some good news and some bad news in our weather for the rest of the week.  The bad news is that we will see numerous rounds of scattered thunderstorms during the next several days. The good news is that the threat of severe weather will remain low, although we may have to worry about flooding in a few spots.

Severe weather worries?  A fairly weak upper-level disturbance will be easing through the southern plains during the next several days and will take advantage of some very warm and moist air to squeeze out occasional rounds of thunderstorms.  While a few storms could be rather strong, any severe weather issues will be isolated at best.  Our main worry this week could become flash flooding in some of the heavier downpours of rain.  The morning run of the HRRR model shows that we could see scattered areas that pick up two to four inches of rain from now through Wednesday night.      

With the lack of any obvious signs of a more organized severe weather threat, I will keep my level of severe weather concern at 3.  That basically means that the risk of severe weather is very low, but it is not zero.

The 7-day rainfall potential from the Weather Prediction Center shows that most of the area will see 2 to 3” of rain during the next week.  This is what you should expect to see.  Again, hi-res models show that parts of our area could get that amount and more just in the next 36 hours, so don’t be shocked if you get much more.  

Any Tropical worries?  Today’s 7-day outlook from the National Hurricane Center still indicates that we will likely not see any tropical development in the Atlantic Basin during the next week.  Long-range models continue to show that the tropics could stay quiet for the next two weeks.  There is still quite a bit of Saharan dust moving across the Atlantic.  Models show that it’s doubtful that much of this will make it to the ArkLaTex during the next week.