Wx Worries: Timing of strongest storms this weekend

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – Thunderstorms will return to the ArkLaTex this weekend. Futurecast indicates two main waves of storms.  One on Saturday night & Sunday morning, and a second Sunday night into Monday.  Sunday night’s storms could be the strongest. 

After a dry day over most of the ArkLatex on Saturday.  Scattered storms will move across mainly the northeast half of the area Saturday night. While SPC indicates that we have a slight severe weather risk, hi-res models indicate that we could see the storms remain slightly below severe limits with wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph. Some hail will also be possible.  Tornadoes are looking doubtful Saturday night.  These storms will likely weaken as they move across  NW Louisiana late Saturday night into Sunday morning. 

Several hi-res models are indicating that we will see a complex of storms develop over NW Texas Saturday afternoon.  These storms will likely move into the ArkLaTex sometime late Sunday night.  Futurecast indicates that this wave of storms could be stronger and could bring a damaging wind threat as they move across mainly E & NE Texas and NW Louisiana late Sunday night into Monday morning. SPC again has our area’s severe storm risk at level 2 or slight.  That means any severe weather issues should be somewhat scattered. Based on current information, I’d put my level of worry for Saturday night’s storms at 3 out of 10 and 4 out of 10 for the possibly stronger storms late Sunday night into Monday.  

The threat of scattered storms will likely continue through at least next Friday.  The latest run of the Blend of Models shows a big variation in rainfall potential with amounts ranging from around 1.5” over the southern part of the area to over 5” over the NW part of the ArkLaTex. 

Any Tropical worries?  The National Hurricane Center indicates that we will likely not see any tropical development in the Atlantic Basin during the next week.  Long-range models show that the tropics could stay quiet for the next two weeks.  You might notice a bit of a haze in the air this weekend as some dust from the Saharan Desert moves over the ArklaTex.