Enjoy the weekend as heavy rain returns next week!

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – We will finally catch a break from the persistent waves of showers and thunderstorms this weekend.  You’d better enjoy it, as long-range models indicate that much of next week will be rather stormy. 

Timing:  There is good model agreement that we will see another large and very slow-moving upper-level low that will move across the southern half of the country next week. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will likely begin on Tuesday and could continue through next weekend.  

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How worried am I about severe weather?  As of right now, it appears that any severe weather threat could be rather isolated.  Any threat will probably be at its highest during the middle of next week.  That being said, my severe weather concern is a 3 out of 10.  If you add the rainfall potential to the mix, that 3 becomes a 4.

How much rain?  The Blend of Models shows that we will likely see rainfall from now through this Friday night in the range of ½ to 11/2”.  However, if you add next week’s rain, the 10-day rainfall potential numbers rise to five to SEVEN inches.  Obviously, the flooding potential will increase if this rain does occur.  Another concern will be the area lakes and rivers. Very heavy rain has fallen upstream in the Red River basin over the past few days.  Much of that water that is not captured by upstream reservoirs will be headed through the ArkLaTex.  The current forecast for the Red River is not very concerning.  That could change if you add next week’s potential rainfall.  

10-day Outlook:   Expect plenty of rain during the next 10 days as the period will begin with scattered storms on Friday and Friday night.  We will see a break from the rain on Sunday and Monday, and then see more rain each day from next Tuesday through next weekend.  Temperatures will not be as warm.  Highs most days will be in the 70s and low 80s.  Overnight lows will mainly be in the 60s.