Keep an eye on next week’s disturbance

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – The threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the ArkLaTex on Thursday and Friday. Our severe weather concerns with these storms should be minimal.  Our next best chance of severe weather could arrive by the middle of next week.  

How worried am I about severe weather?  Our biggest issue from the storms expected for the rest of today, Thursday, and Friday probably won’t come from thunderstorm wind or hail, but from the heavy rain they could drop.  Hi-res models suggest that a few isolated locations could see rainfall totals during this time that exceed four inches.   My level of concern regarding this activity is three on a scale of ten.  

It appears that we now have enough model agreement to be more concerned about next week’s storms.  Models show storms returning next Tuesday night and Wednesday.  All severe weather threats will be possible, but our main concerns will likely be wind and hail.  SPC now indicates that we will have a slight severe weather risk over the NW edge of the area Tuesday night. So far, SPC does not indicate a slight risk for Wednesday, but that could be due to the usual model disagreement that appears for something that is a week away. I put my level of concern at 4 out of 10 for next week.  

How much rain?   The Blend of Models shows that next week’s disturbance could bring more than an inch to most of the area.   This is on top of the potentially heavy totals that I mentioned above. 

10-day Outlook: Temperatures will stay warm despite all of the anticipated rain, with highs mainly in the 80s and lows mainly in the 60s. Upper-level high pressure will take control of our weather by this weekend.  This will shut off most of the rain and bring some warmer temperatures.  Highs could soar to the low 90s degrees by the end of the weekend and the beginning of next week. Next week’s disturbance will bring some cooler air as highs will retreat to the low to middle 80s by the end of the week. Overnight lows next week will likely remain in the 60s and low 70s.