Some uncertainty regarding Easter weekend storms

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – We continue to watch a disturbance that will move through the middle of the country this weekend and bring the threat of strong to severe storms.  Models are split on the timing of these storms.  Some show storms mainly Saturday evening over the NW half of the area, and others show our main threat will be on Easter Sunday afternoon over the SE half of the area.

Saturday storms?  At this point, most models show that storms that develop on Saturday will probably stay to the northwest of the ArkLaTex.  There is one model that shows the storms moving through our area on Saturday evening and Saturday night. This same model shows that we will not have any storms on Sunday.   SPC indicates that we will have a slight severe weather risk over the NW half of the area. This is probably a worst-case scenario. My level of worry for Saturday is 4 out of 10.   

Easter Sunday storms?  If we are going to see severe storms in our area this weekend, the chances appear highest on Sunday.  Once again, most models show a limited amount of rain in our area, even on Sunday, however, the EURO does show storms developing Sunday afternoon over NW LA and SW AR and has been doing so for the past few runs. SPC indicates that we will have a slight severe weather risk over most of the area on Sunday, with all severe threats possible. 

As of right now, I’m most concerned about any storms that develop in our area on Sunday afternoon. My level of concern is 5 on a scale of 10.  Keep in mind that it is only Wednesday, and if more models come in line with the EURO’s outcome, then that 5 could go up. On the other hand, if the EURO starts to limit its Sunday storms like other models are, that 5 will go down.  Hence, the uncertainty!      

It still appears that we will have several more rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms next week.  I’m still not too worried about severe weather at this time, however, we do still have the potential of seeing several inches of rain from this weekend through next weekend.  

Temperatures will stay warm and we will stay dry in the period leading up to Easter, with highs mainly in the 80s and lows mainly in the 60s.   Right now, it appears that temperatures on Easter Sunday morning will begin in the upper 60s.  Daytime highs that afternoon will be in the low 80s. Despite the expected rounds of scattered storms next week, temperatures will stay warm.  Highs next week will stay in the low to middle 80s, and lows will remain in the 60s.