Rain on Easter Sunday with STORMS possible!

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – It still appears that a rather strong disturbance will be moving through the Plains late on Easter weekend and could bring a round of storms to the ArkLaTex late Saturday night and possibly Easter Sunday morning.

Another ridge of upper-level high pressure will bring the continuation of our warm and dry weather pattern through Friday.  This ridge will begin to shift to the east on Saturday and should be far enough east on Sunday to allow an upper-level disturbance to move across the Plains.  There seems to be better model agreement today on the potential path of this system.  It also appears that this path will be close enough to us to bring a threat of strong to severe storms. Given the configuration of this disturbance and available moisture, it appears that all severe weather threats will be possible. However, it appears that damaging winds will be our biggest concern.

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On a scale of one to 10, I would now classify our level of worry at a 4.  Models are split on how things could play out this weekend. Most show that the severe weather risk will be highest Saturday and Saturday night to the west and NW of the ArkLaTex, and show this activity weakening as it approaches the area late Saturday night and Sunday morning. One model shows the storms maintaining their strength and posing a mainly wind threat. The outlooks from SPC reflect the latter, showing a slight severe risk Saturday night and Sunday.

The 7-day rainfall outlook from WPC shows that the heaviest rain will fall in the part of the ArkLaTex closest to the path of the upper low.  Rainfall totals of more than 1” will be possible over the NW edge of the area.  This is probably where any storms will be at their strongest. The southeast half of the area will likely receive ½ to 1”.  Another longer-term concern could be the amount of rain that falls later next week.  The Blend of Models shows that 10-day rainfall totals in our area will be in the range of two to over four inches, with amounts of 3 to 5” further upstream in the Red River Basin. Most of the upstream water will be caught by the upstream reservoirs.  However, with the Red still running a bit high, we will have to keep an eye on any impacts next week’s rain has on its levels.   

Temperatures will stay warm and we will stay dry in the period leading up to Easter, with highs mainly in the 80s and lows mainly in the 60s.   Right now, it appears that temperatures on Easter Sunday morning will begin in the upper 60s.  Daytime highs that afternoon will be in the low 80s. After a break from rain for most of Monday and Tuesday, more showers and thunderstorms will be possible later next week. As of right now,  I’m not worried about severe weather yet next week.  Highs next week will stay in the low to middle 80s, and lows will remain in the 60s.