STORMS on EASTER?  It again looks possible!

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – Not much has changed in the outlook for Easter Sunday since Friday.  Storms are looking possible, but the majority of models show the largest severe weather risk COULD stay northwest of the ArkLaTex.

The upper-level ridge that has been protecting us from rain during the past week will likely continue to do so this week.  It appears that this ridge will weaken somewhat and shift to the east by Easter weekend.  This will allow an upper-level disturbance to move into the Plains on Easter Sunday.  The big question with this disturbance is the path that the upper-level disturbance will take.  The majority of models now show a more northerly course, which means that our risk could be very limited. 

On a scale of one to 10, I would now classify our level of worry at a 4.  Given the amount of moisture that will be available, the fact that highs on Sunday will probably be in the low 80s, and that it should be quite humid with a breezy south wind, the chance of storms that could be severe looks possible but still rather low.  It also appears that IF we do see severe storms, all severe weather threats will be possible.  Currently, SPC does not show our risk to be high enough to show a slight risk, yet. 

The 7-day rainfall outlook from WPC shows that the heaviest rain will fall in the part of the ArkLaTex closest to the path of the upper low.  Rainfall totals of 1 to 2” will be possible over the NW half of the area.  The southeast half of the area will likely receive ½ to 1”.  

Temperatures will stay warm and we will stay dry in the period leading up to Easter, with highs mainly in the 80s and lows mainly in the 60s.   Right now, it appears that temperatures on Easter Sunday morning will begin in the upper 60s.  Daytime highs that afternoon will be in the low to middle 80s. The rest of next week could feature several more shots at showers and thunderstorms with highs mainly in the 80s. I’m not worried about severe weather yet next week.  Stay tuned!