What to expect from our first two rounds of SEVERE WEATHER

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) –  Strong to severe thunderstorms will be something that we will be talking a lot about during the next FOUR days. Round one will begin on Wednesday afternoon, with round two on Thursday.

SPC Outlooks:  The Storm Prediction Center indicates that we will have a threat of severe weather over most of the ArkLaTex from Wednesday through Saturday.  Above is a loop of their outlooks for the next week. We will probably have a level 2 slight and/or level 3 enhanced risk each day, with all severe weather threats possible.  

Futurecast timing: Futurecast shows that we will see a mostly cloudy sky on Tuesday and Wednesday.  It will be very windy on Wednesday ahead of the storm development with gusts approaching 40 mph.  A weakening band of t’storms will enter the area during the morning.  These probably won’t bring much of a severe threat. 

New storms will develop over the eastern half of the ArkLaTex on Wednesday afternoon and will strengthen as they move northeast.  These storms will probably be strongest over the northeast quarter of the ArkLaTex in SW AR and NW LA north of I-20. We will likely see the storms decrease Wednesday night as they move north.  We will see a similar picture on Thursday.  Once again, strong to severe storms will be possible over most of the area.  The chance for severe storms will be highest over the NE quarter of the area, especially those locations east of the AR/TX line.

Above is a 36-hour loop of tornado potential showing where the chance of rotating storms will be highest.  Below that is a 36-hour loop from Futurecast that shows where the threat of hail will be highest. 

Long range outlook:  More storms then some nice weather…The storms on Thursday and Friday are just the beginning.  We will see the threat of severe weather continue on Friday and Saturday. Strong storms will probably be most widespread on Saturday.  Flooding could become a concern in spots starting on Friday. That threat will be highest on Saturday.  It will stay warm and humid into the weekend with highs staying in the 80s and lows only falling into the 70s.  Cooler and drier air will then settle in, giving us a needed break from the storms.  Highs next week will mainly be in the 60s and 70s.  Overnight lows will dip into the 40s and 50s.