FLOODING threat to increase late this week

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) –  Strong to severe storms are looking likely for most of the ArkLaTex.  I covered those threats in this article. Flooding will become a growing concern as we move toward the weekend.

How much rain?  Over the past several days, models have been consistent in showing that parts of the ArkLaTex could get nearly TWO MONTHS worth of rain in the next four days.  The Blend of Models shows that rainfall totals will range from two to three inches over East Texas and Northwest Louisiana.  This likely won’t be enough to worry much about flooding.  That will be a different storm further north in SW AR and SE OK.  There, rainfall totals of five to as much as nine inches will be possible.

Daily rain potential:  Above is a look at the 24-hour rain potential for De Queen from the Blend of Models. I chose De Queen because this is one location that could see some of the highest 4-day totals. You can see that some of the heaviest rain could fall on Friday and Saturday.  This will fall after getting a decent amount of rain on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, the ground will be rather saturated, increasing the flooding threat from heavier downpours.  A Flood Watch is in effect for the northern third of the ArkLaTex. 

What about lakes and rivers?  It’s a bit early to provide a clear picture of the impact of the expected rain on area lakes and rivers.  I don’t expect any major issues with the Red River as it is currently flowing at normal levels, and much of this rain will be caught by reservoirs in SE OK, SW AR, and NE TX. Those lakes will likely see a significant rise this late this week and this weekend. We won’t know how much until we know how much rain has fallen.  Another lake to watch next week will be Lake Bistineau.  Much of its water comes from SW AR.  

10-Day Forecast: The good news is that once the storms depart late Saturday or Saturday night, we will settle into a dry weather pattern that will last through almost all of next week. The week will begin with highs in the 60s and end with highs in the 70s.  Overnight lows next week will be in the 40s and 50s.