SEVERE storms on Sunday?  What about next week?

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) –  It still appears that we will see several disturbances impact the ArkLaTex in the coming week.  Our next best shot at severe weather will come late Sunday and Sunday night.  We will also have to keep an eye on the middle of next week. 

SPC Outlook:  Today’s severe weather outlook for Sunday from the Storm Prediction Center continues to show a slight severe weather risk.  This risk area now includes all of the area.  If we have severe weather, it will be somewhat scattered.  

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A lot of uncertainty: Models continue to paint a somewhat murky picture of how Sunday’s storms could play out.  One model is not very aggressive with the intensity of the storms and gives us what I would call a low to medium chance of severe storms.  The other limits the coverage and shows a bit more intensity with more of a medium chance. Our biggest threat on Sunday will probably be damaging winds.  Some hail will be possible, but it doesn’t look as large as last weekend’s disturbance.  The tornado threat looks rather low at this point but is not zero.  We will get a clearer picture of Sunday’s storms when we get a look at hi-res models in the next few days.    

Keep an eye on the middle of next week.  Above is a look at the level of ‘fuel’ available for storms during the next week.  These numbers are not surprising given how warm it will be.  You can see that it will be quite unstable on Sunday with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.  We will have to keep an eye on another disturbance that will arrive by the middle of next week.  SPC doesn’t yet have a risk area out for next Wednesday.  If we were to see more severe storms next week, it would be on Wednesday or possibly Thursday.  Most of the ArkLaTex is running a bit below normal on rainfall in March, and we could use some rain.  The Blend of Models shows that most of the area will see around 1.5” in the coming ten days.

10-Day Forecast: The long-range weather outlook is looking mainly dry on Saturday, although we will see plenty of clouds.  Our next best chance of severe weather could come on Sunday evening and Sunday night. Next week will begin with mainly dry weather on Monday and Tuesday. It will end with several chances of scattered thunderstorms beginning on Wednesday.  It does appear that some of the storms late next week could be strong to severe.  Temperatures will stay above average during the period, with lows mainly in the 50s and 60s and highs mainly in the 80s.