Sunday storms: Where the risk could be highest

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) –  A cold front will move through the ArkLaTex on Sunday and bring a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms.  The storms will be most numerous late Sunday afternoon and evening.  

SPC Outlook:  The severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center hasn’t changed much from yesterday but has expanded to the east.  It still lists our severe weather risk as being ‘slight’, or two on a 1 to 5 scale.  That means that if we have any severe weather reports, they would be rather scattered.   

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What we can expect on Sunday: A cluster of storms will begin to develop Sunday afternoon. Most models show this taking place over the middle of the ArkLaTex close to the AR/LA state line. The storms will gradually strengthen as they begin to move to the southeast during the afternoon and evening.  It still appears that our main threats will be damaging wind and the potential for some very large hail.  We could also see an increasing threat of a tornado or two.  This risk will likely be highest over the southern half of Northwest Louisiana and East Texas.  The storms should move out of our area late Sunday evening. 

How much rain?  It still appears that the heaviest rain will fall over the southeastern half of the area where we will see rainfall potential in the range of ½ to 1”.  Amounts will likely be below ½ further to the northwest.  

10-Day Forecast: As I mentioned in my previous article earlier today, our 10-day forecast shows that we will see above-normal temperatures through most of the period.  Highs on Friday will return to the 70s and warm into the 80s this weekend.  It’s quite possible that most of the area will see the 80s continue through next weekend. Overnight lows during the period will warm into the 50s.  We will see a chance for some strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday.  Models are now starting to agree on a chance of rain late next week on Friday and Saturday.