Indiana’s economy could be hit hardest by EU tariffs

(NEXSTAR) – Tensions are escalating between the U.S. and Europe, stoking fears of a possible trade war. Following threats by the Trump administration, the European Union teased billions in potential tariffs on U.S. exports could take effect in April, including a 50% tax on American whiskey. Trump responded by threatening a 200% tariff on European wine, Champagne and spirits.

The alcohol industry is already concerned about the tariffs on the table, but there’s no guarantee the retaliatory fees would stop there. Broader tariffs on all goods imported from the European Union – like those against Canada and Mexico, which were announced and then suspended earlier this month – would have a widespread impact on the U.S. economy.

States that do a lot of business with the 27 member nations that make up the European Union would be particularly vulnerable. Indiana tops the list.

Two states – Indiana and North Carolina – get almost half their imports from the EU, a Lending Tree analysis of Census Bureau data found. Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and Maryland get more than a third of their imports from Europe. These would be hit hardest by import tariffs.

States that import the most from Europe

Rank	State	Total imports	Imports from EU	% of imports from EU
1	Indiana	$106,748,236,970	$49,329,853,092	46.2%
2	North Carolina	$87,610,649,065	$39,588,806,950	45.2%
3	Rhode Island	$11,144,208,174	$4,317,577,495	38.7%
4	New Hampshire	$10,206,029,191	$3,504,343,773	34.3%
5	Maryland	$42,688,137,859	$14,249,786,397	33.4%
6	South Carolina	$58,063,745,661	$18,863,376,711	32.5%
7	Kentucky	$94,523,501,376	$29,731,844,095	31.5%
8	Pennsylvania	$127,324,590,609	$38,096,137,123	29.9%
9	Arkansas	$7,185,733,765	$2,102,492,476	29.3%
10	New Jersey	$152,968,109,537	$40,852,480,142	26.7%

On the other hand, several U.S. states are export heavily to Europe, leaving them potentially vulnerable to tariffs imposed by the E.U. More than a quarter of exports from New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Maryland, Connecticut, Indiana and Massachusetts head to Europe, according to Lending Tree.

States that export the most to Europe

Rank	State	Total exports	Exports from EU	% of exports from EU
1	New Hampshire	$7,122,750,116	$2,744,917,697	38.5%
2	Rhode Island	$3,074,549,603	$1,081,377,376	35.2%
3	Maryland	$17,855,001,050	$5,931,010,571	33.2%
4	Connecticut	$17,382,116,184	$5,171,966,611	29.8%
5	Indiana	$59,867,697,549	$17,148,085,268	28.6%
6	Massachusetts	$34,863,466,051	$9,565,255,786	27.4%
7	District of Columbia	$2,718,181,788	$672,624,103	24.7%
8	Alabama	$26,835,275,940	$6,499,534,028	24.2%
8	South Carolina	$38,027,443,519	$9,202,423,497	24.2%
10	Louisiana	$86,950,707,189	$20,755,434,314	23.9%

Kentucky and Indiana have the highest percentage of their state GDP – 15% and 13%, respectively – made up by U.S-EU trade.

Other tariffs already imposed by the Trump administration are expected to hurt U.S. industry, analysts say. The 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum will likely drive up costs for American companies that use the metals, such as automakers, construction firms, and beverage makers that use cans.

“Unilateral tariffs will raise prices, cost American jobs, and strain alliances,” Philip Luck and Evan Brown of the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote in a report last month.

When Trump imposed steel and aluminum tariffs during his first term, American producers of the two metals benefited and increased production. However, the number of beneficiaries was relatively small: The U.S. steel industry, for instance, employs fewer than 150,000 people. Walmart alone has 1.6 million employees in the United States.

Moreover, economists have found, the gains to the steel and aluminum industries were more than offset by the cost they imposed on “downstream’’ manufacturers that use steel and aluminum. In 2021, production at such companies dropped by nearly $3.5 billion because of the tariffs, canceling out the $2.3 billion uptick in production that year by aluminum producers and steelmakers, the U.S. International Trade Commission found in 2023.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.