What to expect from Tuesday’s storms!

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – Strong storms will move across the ArkLaTex on Tuesday morning, bringing a risk of damaging wind, a tornado or two, and possibly some hail. Below is the latest on potential threats from the HRRR model and Futurecast.

HRRR storm timing:  This is a look at the potential timing of Tuesday’s storms from the HRRR model.  This model provides a new forecast every hour that goes out 18 hours.  It has very similar storm timing when compared to Futurecast and shows our main impacts will occur in the morning between 6 am and 12-1 pm. 

HRRR wind gust potential:  It appears that damaging wind gusts could be our most widespread worry.  You can see the latest outlook above from the HRRR model on wind gust potential during the next 18 hours.  It is looking likely that we will see gusts of 40 to 60 mph with some of the strongest storms.  We could see non-thunderstorms gusts of over 40 mph. 

Futurecast rotation potential:  A tornado or two is looking possible, but most hi-res models show that the risk could be rather low.  Notice the rotation potential depicted in Futurecast is on the low end of the spectrum.  One thing to keep in mind is that this is a very strong disturbance and it is possible that models are underestimating this potential.  The fact that the storms are moving through during the morning is a good thing for our area.  Hail will also be possible but that risk is looking rather low. 

10-Day Forecast: Your 10-day forecast shows that once Tuesday’s storms blow through the area, we will see dry weather through Friday.  Highs most days this week will be in the 60s.  We will warm into the 70s on Friday thanks to a breezy southwesterly wind.  The weekend will begin with a chance of rain on Saturday.  Sunshine will return on Sunday and continue through most of next week.  It also looks rather warm next week with highs returning to the 70s with some low 80s possible.  Overnight lows will mainly be in the 40s and 50s.