Strong to SEVERE storms expected Tuesday morning

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) –  A strong storm system will move through most of the ArkLaTex on Tuesday morning bringing lots of wind that will increase within a line of strong to severe thunderstorms.  This wind will likely be our biggest concern.

SPC Outlook:  The Storm Prediction Center continues to indicate that all of our area will have a slight to enhanced severe weather risk.  This means that we could see scattered to numerous reports of mainly damaging wind.  The hail risk is looking rather low.  A tornado or two will be possible. This activity will probably be at its strongest after it moves out of the ArkLaTex on Tuesday afternoon and evening.    

Thunderstorm timing:  The latest run of Futurecast shows the potential timing of Tuesday’s storms.  It now appears that the main line of storms will enter the NW edge of the ArkLaTex at around 7 am.  It will move into Shreveport at around 10 am and then exit the SE edge of the area between noon and 1 pm.  We will then see a rather rapid clearing Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Expect a clear sky Tuesday night and lots of sunshine on Wednesday.  Futurecast is in line with other hi-res models showing that our main threat will be damaging straight-line wind.  The hail threat is looking low but is not zero.  As far as the tornado threat, some hi-res models show that we may have to watch the NW edge of the area as the line moves in and the eastern edge of the ArkLaTex as the storms move out.

How much rain?   Given the dry weather that we have experienced over most of the past week, and the speed at which Tuesday’s storms will move across the ArkLaTex, the flooding risk is looking low.  Models indicate that most of our area will receive between ½ to 1” of rain with some areas receiving up to 1.5”.  The more widespread 1 to 1.5” rain totals will probably occur over the northern half of the area. I will post another article later in the day with more details on the threats that we could face with Tuesday morning storms.