Disney Reportedly Expects Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu Box Office Opening Lower Than Solo: A Star Wars Story

Disney has reportedly tempered expectations for Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu, which is currently tracking to open lower than box office bomb Solo: A Star Wars Story.

According to The Hollywood Reporter, internal Disney estimates place the movie as debuting to an $80 million box office gross over the upcoming four-day Memorial Day weekend.

That’s less than half of the $177.3 million opening earned by Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker back in 2019. This was the last Star Wars movie to launch in theaters — though, to be fair, it was also billed as being Disney’s big sequel trilogy closer.

More relevant, perhaps, is the comparison between The Mandalorian and Grogu and Solo: A Star Wars Story, the most recent Star Wars spinoff film. Solo launched in 2018 to $84 million over three days, and $104 million days over its first four — neither of which Mando is expected to beat.

Audiences gave Solo a mixed reaction, and there’s been a similar ambivalence online to early looks at the Mando film. The movie’s goofy Super Bowl spot was savaged by fans, even though the clip was clearly designed as a spoof of typical big game commercials. A more recent excerpt, shown on Jimmy Kimmel Live, was similarly critiqued, as Grogu idly played with buttons in a cockpit in a scene that felt like it went on far too long.

Far from being Star Wars’ triumphant return to the theaters after a lengthy seven-year wait, Disney seems to be setting expectations that Mandalorian and Grogu will perform fine — but not blow up in a way that Lucasfilm might have once hoped for its pop culture-dominating duo.

But it’s not all bad news. While Mando might not beat Solo’s opening box office, the new film has been made for a fraction of the cost. Solo remains one of the most expensive films ever made, with a budget of around $365 million before marketing costs, and an estimated break-even point of around $600 million that it got nowhere near. The movie also had a messy production, with Disney having to parachute in a fresh director in order to get it over the line.

Reports have suggested that Mando has a far slimmer budget of around $160 million, making it the cheapest Disney-made Star Wars film to date. It is helmed by Disney and Star Wars veteran Jon Favreau, and will undoubtedly also sell a lot of Grogu toys.

The Mandalorian and Grogu comes out six-and-a-half years after the divisive The Rise of Skywalker, which means there’s a whole generation of young kids who will get to experience a brand new Star Wars movie in theaters for the first time. Favreau is well aware of the opportunity here, telling The Associated Press this week: “I want to make the next generation feel the way about Star Wars that I did when I saw it for the first time.” Favreau’s comments here echo those Lucasfilm co-CEO Dave Filoni issued in March, when he said The Mandalorian And Grogu benefits from launching without the weight of expectation that comes with introducing a new Star Wars trilogy.

Tom Phillips is IGN’s News Editor. You can reach Tom at tom_phillips@ign.com or find him on Bluesky @tomphillipseg.bsky.social