Thursday forecast: Temps stay mild in Chicagoland, but an early-season blast of cold air is coming

Chicagoland is starting the day Thursday with clear skies and chilly temperatures, some of the coldest readings seen around the area in seven months.

But temps will rebound quickly after the cold start to the day, warming to the upper 50s by Thursday afternoon. Peak highs may even reach the low 60s in some locations.

Clouds will also gradually increase throughout the day, with nearly overcast conditions by Thursday evening.

No daytime rain is expected Thursday, but a light shower is possible Thursday night, with better organized showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms after midnight in Friday’s predawn hours.  

Hi-resolution model

These snapshots at various times show the clouds increasing and showers reaching the metro area.  

Thunderstorm outlook from the Storm Prediction Center

No severe weather is likely, but a fairly impressive area of general thunderstorm risk is highlighted here from the Storm Prediction Center. 

Chicago’s Precipitation Chances

We have an active weather pattern through the coming weekend, with two separate weather systems set to impact the metro area.    

Following early Friday morning showers, the next weather system arrives Saturday afternoon, with rain and falling temperatures. Rain could mix with and change to some wet snow late Saturday night and at times into Sunday. 

Low pressure tracks to the northeast, then the focus shifts to lake-effect snow close to the Illinois/Indiana shoreline, transitioning to portions of northern Indiana at times well into Monday. It’s still too early for specific snow forecasts, but the potential for some accumulating snow is increasing for portions of Northwest Indiana.  

Forecast precipitable water animation: Next 6 days

This is an excellent forecast tool when tracking arctic air into the United States.

Note the black/gray/white color depiction coming straight out of Canada. This is a loud signal that cold, arctic dry air is crashing into the Lower 48, all the way south through the Gulf of Mexico and south Florida amid the strong, but brief, N/NW mean flow pattern. 

Forecast low temperature animation: Next 8 days

Watch the cold air crash down into the U.S. as teens and 20s sweep across the Eastern U.S. and temperatures near freezing dip far south near the Gulf Coast.  

Forecast average temperature anomaly: Nov. 5-9

It looks to be warm across the Southwest U.S. and Pacific Northwest, while incoming cold is waiting to drop down from Canada across the Great Lakes. 

Forecast average temperature anomaly: Nov. 10-14

Early-season chill dominates the Midwest and Eastern U.S., with the biggest cold air anomaly over Florida and the Southeast. 

Forecast average temperature anomaly: Nov. 15-19

The early-season blast of arctic air sent packing, as much of the Lower 48 returns to above to, in some cases, much above normal temperatures. 

Chicago forecast highs and departure from normal

Mild the next two days before a jarring temperature crash this weekend sends readings plunging to the coldest levels so far this season.

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