Big Country winter outlook: Climate Prediction Center vs. Farmer’s Almanac, who’s got it right?

BIG COUNTRY, Texas (KTAB/KRBC) – Meteorologists Carter Vandrasik and Katalina Bell are breaking down what the Climate Prediction Center says about this winter, and how it stacks up against the Farmer’s Almanac.

Right now, the November-through-January outlook doesn’t look too promising, according to Kat.

“We’re expecting to be above normal in our temperatures and below normal in our precipitation. So that’s what they’ve put out for those maps. This was released on October 16, so not too long ago,” Kat shared.

So, the odds of a white winter? Very slim.

“It doesn’t scream snow, it doesn’t scream bring the jackets out. It’s just like, Okay, I guess we’ll just stay in this kind of weird range of it’s kind of chilly sometimes, and then maybe we’ll get a cold snap here and there,” Kat shared.

They compared this outlook to the Farmer’s Almanac, which predicts cold and wet conditions for Texas. However, they noted that since the Almanac bases its forecasts on things such as solar cycles and historical weather patterns, its reliability is often debated.

“The Farmer’s Almanac has been around for more than 200 years, so I think it’s more like people like to look at it like a fun game, like, ‘Okay, this is what the Farmer’s Almanac says. Maybe we could see this, or maybe not.’ So, I mean, I don’t agree with what the Farmer’s Almanac says this year, it says that the South, specifically the state of Texas, is expecting cold and wet conditions, which is completely the opposite of the Climate Prediction Center,” Kat explained.

So how accurate is it?

“They claim it themselves that it’s an 80% accuracy rate for its weather forecasts through some specific evaluations. Although some specific evaluations have put its accuracy lower, with some studies suggesting rates closer to 50% which seems a little more realistic,” Kat said. “The discrepancy may be due to how accuracy is defined, for example, whether a forecast is considered correct if it predicts a general trend of above or below average temperatures, even if the exact amount differs.”