Severe storms Saturday:  Possible impacts

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – A cold front will move through the ArkLaTex Saturday night and will bring the threat of thunderstorms.  Severe storms will be possible.

SPC outlook:  The Storm Prediction Center continues to show that the ArkLaTex will see a slight severe weather risk.  That means that any severe weather will be scattered.  The risk will probably be highest over the northern third of the area near and north of the AR-LA line.  The risk gradually lowers as you look south.  

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Storm timing:  Futurecast shows that the storms will increase Saturday afternoon over the northern half of the area and should be near I-30, including Texarkana, by around 5 pm.  They will move south during the evening and should approach I-20, including Shreveport,  by around 10 pm.  They will quickly move south through the rest of the area Saturday night. 

Storm threats:  Our biggest concern from these storms will likely be damaging thunderstorm winds.  Futurecast shows most of the storms will produce wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph, with a few scattered gusts of 60 mph possible.  Large hail will also be possible, but reports of severe hail (at least quarter-sized) should be isolated.  While the risk of tornadoes is currently looking low, the chance of seeing a tornado or two is not zero.

Rain potential:  Futurecast is painting a rather optimistic picture that most of the area will receive at least 1” of rain, with scattered locations between Shreveport and Texarkana receiving more than 2”. 

Weather Worry Index 3 out of 10:  Given the scattered nature of any severe weather in our area, and the low tornado risk, I’m keeping today’s WWI at 3 out of 10.