California prepares for extreme weather swings

While California’s climate has always swung between dry and wet conditions, the past five years have proven what climate science has predicted: California must be prepared for extreme weather events of all kinds, even simultaneous drought and flood conditions, said a news release from the Department of Water Resources. 

As the new Water Year gets underway, Lake Oroville, the State Water Project’s largest reservoir, hit 109% of average. However, there is uncertainty about conditions this winter, the release said. 

The latest outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Predication Center shows a 71% chance of La Niña conditions this fall, decreasing to a 54% chance in December through February. La Niña events have historically resulted in more dry than wet years, but research also suggests that even as the climate grows hotter and drier overall, the precipitation that California does receive will arrive in stronger storms, increasing the risk from flooding. 

“There is no such thing as a normal water year in California,” DWR Director Karla Nemeth said in the release. “Just in the past two winters, deceptively average rain and snowfall totals statewide masked the extremely dry conditions in Southern California that contributed to devastating fires as well as flood events across the state from powerful atmospheric river events. California must be ready to respond to emergencies from droughts to floods to fires.” 

Last winter, extremely dry fall conditions in Southern California fueled the destructive Eaton and Palisades fires just weeks before the typical peak of atmospheric river storm activity in California.   

Extreme flooding will remain a critical concern moving into this water year as a warmer atmosphere drives more moisture through more powerful storms, the release said. DWR’s flood operations staff will be holding meetings with emergency response personnel across the state in the coming weeks to make sure the state and communities are prepared to respond. 

“The past decade has clearly demonstrated the need to prepare for extremes,” State Climatologist Michael Anderson said in the release. “A dramatic flood year in 2023 was followed by two years with large spatial disparities. While our water supplies are in a good position heading into the new water year, we will be watching closely for dry and wet extreme conditions that can pose hazards statewide.” 

California’s water year runs from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30 and is the official 12-month timeframe used by water managers to compile and compare hydrologic records. 

For more information on California’s current hydrological conditions, visit cww.water.ca.gov. 

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