Front could bring severe weather this weekend

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – With the dry weather that we have experienced over the past three weeks, all of us are probably hoping for some rain.  There is good news and bad news.  A cold front will bring a good chance of rain to the ArkLaTex this weekend.  The catch is that the thunderstorms the front produces could come with a threat of severe weather.

Today’s update from the Storm Prediction Center now shows a level 2 slight severe weather risk for Saturday and Saturday night.  The level of any severe weather threat will probably come down to timing.  If the storms arrive early in the day on Saturday, then our severe weather concerns will probably be lower.  If the front arrives later on Saturday or Saturday evening, then the threat could be a bit higher.  As of right now, it appears that all severe weather threats, including tornadoes, will be possible. Based on current model forecasts, the severe weather risk will probably be highest over the northern half of the area.   

As of right now, it appears that we could see ½ to 1” of rain over most of the area this weekend, with amounts closer to ½” over the southern quarter of the area. If you add the expected rain late next week, most of the area will see 1 to 2” of needed rainfall.  

Weather Worry Index 3 out of 10:  There is still some model disagreement in the timing of the storms.  Given this uncertainty and the fact that we are still several days away from this potential event, I will keep my level of concern at 3 out of 10.  We will know more about Saturday’s storms later this week.