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*Kickoff: 1 p.m.
*Broadcast: FOX59.
*Spread: Colts by 7.
*History lesson, Part I: The Colts lead the overall series 9-8 and won the most recent meeting. It was week 16 of 2021 and the last positive moment of a season that held so much promise. Carson Wentz’s 14-yard TD pass to Dezmon Patmon with six minutes remaining gave the Colts a 22-16 win that put them on the doorstep of earning a postseason berth. Then came a home loss to the Raiders and the road meltdown at Jacksonville. We won’t bore you with the nasty details.
By the way, recently-signed Michael Badgley was handling the kicking duties for Indy at the time.
*History lesson, Part II: The Colts are in position to move to 5-1, which would be their best start since 2009 (14 straight, remember?).
*History lesson, Part III: The 2-3 Cardinals are the first team in NFL history to lose three consecutive games on a game-winning score as time expired. The weird recap: 16-15 to San Francisco on Eddie Pineiro’s 35-yard field goal, 23-20 to Seattle on Jason Myers’ 52-yarder and 22-21 to Tennessee last Sunday on Joey Slye’s 29-yarder.
“I think that’s a helluva football team,’’ Shane Steichen said. “They can be a team that’s 5-0.’’
*History lesson, Part IV: Lucas Oil offers a nice backdrop for the Harrison family. Marvin’s name is on the Ring of Honor after his Hall of Fame career and Marvin Jr. will step on the playing field for the first time. Marvin Jr. has been in the building on several occasions as a youngster, often for Ring of Honor or Super Bowl ceremonies.
The Colts and Cardinals met in the second preseason game in 2024, but Marvin Jr., Arizona’s high-profile first-round draft pick, did not play.
In case you’ve forgotten, the Harrisons are the first father-son tandem to be drafted in the first round in the common-era draft (since 1967). The Colts selected Marvin No. 19 overall in 1996 while the Cardinals made Marvin Jr. the fourth overall pick in 2024.
*More execution: It’s hard to imagine quarterback Daniel Jones and the Colts’ offense being more efficient than it was in last week’s dismantling of Las Vegas. They scored touchdowns on six straight possessions, tied for the franchise’s longest streak since at least 1993, and converted 8-of-10 times on third down, their best since at least 1991. Oh, and they were 6-of-6 in the red zone.
The driving force behind Indy’s early-season success has been Jones’ ability to operate at a high level. Pre-snap and post-snap. He’s completed at least 69% of his passes and averaged at least 7.9 yards per attempt in four of five games. He’s been decisive and either avoided sacks with movement or a quick release. His protection has allowed league-low four sacks.
Of course, it makes things easier for Jones when he’s supported by the NFL’s leading rusher (Jonathan Taylor with 480 yards and six rushing TDs), a versatile rookie (Tyler Warren, whose 307 yards lead all tight ends), Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs and Alec Pierce. Jones, by the way, has been reliable at moving the chains. Eight of his 20 catches have resulted in first downs.
Pierce returns after missing two games with a concussion, and his deep-strike threat opens things up for everyone else.
*Stronger threat: The Cardinals figure to offer much more resistance than the weak D the Raiders brought into Lucas Oil. They’re No. 4 in fewest points allowed (19.2), No. 7 on third downs (34.3%), No. 4 in the red zone (47.1%) and No. 7 in yards per rush (3.9).
Arizona possesses difference-making talent at each level: 39-year old tackle Calais Campbell (3 sacks, four tackles for loss), outside linebacker Josh Sweat (5 sacks, seven QB hits, six tackles for loss) and safety Budda Baker (34 tackles, one tackle for loss). The group has 10 sacks and has been credited with 27 QB hits.
This is a matchup that requires a strong game from Jones’ offensive line.
*Deal with Murray, or . . . ?: Who’ll be under center? The elusive, playmaking Kyler Murray? Or Jacoby Brissett, who’s a capable veteran backup but lacks big-play skills?
Murray missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a foot injury, was limited on Friday and is questionable for the game. But did Arizona coach Jonathan Gannon tip his hand? Saturday, the Cardinals signed quarterback Kedon Slovis to the active roster from the practice squad.
That move might have been because internally, Gannon knows Murray won’t play and Slovis will serve as Brissett’s backup. The Colts have good intel on both Brissett and Slovis.
Brissett started 30 games with Indy from 2017-2020 while Slovis entered the NFL as an undrafted rookie with the Colts in May 2024. He was waived in late August.
If Murray plays, Lou Anarumo’s defense must be prepared for one of the NFL’s most creative players, even if he isn’t 100%. A play isn’t over until the referee blows his whistle.
If it’s Brissett, the defense generally will know where he’ll be. He has good movement in the pocket, but Brissett doesn’t pose a real threat as a runner.
Further complicating things for the Cardinals is they’re without their top two runners. James Conner and Trey Benson are on IR. That leaves Emari Demercado, the latest player to suffer a goal-line brain fade.
In the pass game, look for Colts’ corner Charvarius Ward to spend most of the day shadowing Marvin Harrison Jr. The main threat probably will be tight end Trey McBride (29 catches, 275 yards, one TD).
*Badgley’s return: Michael Badgley knows his way around Lucas Oil. He handled kicking duties for the Colts in 2021 after Rodrigo Blankenship suffered a season-ending hip injury, and is back for another stint after Spencer Shrader suffered a season-ending knee injury last Sunday.
Badgley has decent accuracy inside the 50 (87.7%), but he’s just 5-of-13 on attempts at 50 and longer. That undoubtedly will impact Steichen’s play-calling when the offense crosses midfield.
*And the winner is: Colts 27, Cardinals 17. This is no time to take the foot off the pedal. Whether it’s Murray or Brissett, the Colts must take care of business at home against what might be an injury-impacted opponent.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.
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