Are Texans more likely to face jail time? Here’s what’s behind the numbers

DALLAS (KDAF) — Criminal defense lawyer mcandrewslegal.com reveals criminal prosecution risk across the U.S., based on arrest rates, court filings, and incarcerations per 100,000 people. Each state was scored out of 100 and ranked to form the index. 

Texas ranks 15th with a score of 60.06, recording 206.46 arrests, 55.11 criminal court filings, and 720.59 incarcerations per 100,000 residents. While its arrest rate is below the national average, the state’s high incarceration rate and court filings contribute to its position in the top 15.

Compared with neighbors, Texas’s risk is higher than New Mexico (14th place, score 61.34) by a narrow margin and above Louisiana (10th place, score 66.82), but lower than Arkansas (2nd place, score 77.62) and Oklahoma (3rd place, score 76.13). This positions Texas as a state with significant criminal justice pressures, though not as extreme as some of its Southern neighbors.

Top 10 States with the Highest Criminal Prosecution Likelihood

	State	Total Score (Out of 100)	Arrests per 100,000 people Population	Court Filings per 100,000 people Population	Incarcerated per 100,000 people Population
1	South Dakota	85.14	555.02	60.78	798.77
2	Arkansas	77.62	528.20	21.92	899.99
3	Oklahoma	76.13	443.36	34.62	888.51
4	North Dakota	75.83	666.83	48.96	547.72
5	Wyoming	74.73	498.77	36.93	777.38
6	Montana	73.05	451.79	38.69	748.13
7	Kentucky	69.54	442.91	20.07	874.10
8	Alabama	68.16	382.60	23.54	883.59
9	Mississippi	66.84	298.48	19.03	1,018.67
10	Louisiana	66.82	280.08	16.88	1,065.15

Across the U.S., the data indicates 335.25 arrests per 100,000 residents, 588.78 incarcerations, and 22.39 criminal court filings per 100,000 residents. 

Top 10 States with the Lowest Criminal Prosecution Likelihood

	State	Total Score (Out of 100)	Arrests per 100,000 people Population	Court Filings per 100,000 people Population	Incarcerated per 100,000 people Population
1	Hawaii	12.90	46.34	6.43	365.32
2	Massachusetts	17.72	247.87	6.92	235.39
3	Connecticut	24.22	247.71	6.67	319.64
4	Nevada	24.75	148.61	6.55	592.81
5	New Jersey	27.79	287.06	7.17	263.30
6	New York	28.75	163.87	10.56	313.78
7	Illinois	29.17	184.53	7.75	428.59
8	Maryland	32.51	143.02	14.91	467.87
9	Washington	33.19	206.10	10.64	365.22
10	Rhode Island	33.22	364.50	9.26	249.84