Arkansas Storm Team Blog: Warmer & drier October, November & December possible

As September rolls to a close, many wonder what’s in store for the rest of 2025 in Arkansas. The latest long-range forecasts may not be popular with fall-lovers or those in need of rain. The latest seasonal temperature outlook for October, November, and December suggests that much of the Continental U.S., including Arkansas, has a high likelihood of experiencing warmer-than-normal conditions. This takes into account not just daily high temperatures, but also daily low temperatures, showing that the overall average is likely to be warmer in the long run. This doesn’t mean the areas highlighted in oranges and reds below will be scorching hot through December, but it does mean there’s a likelihood that conditions will overall be warmer than what’s usually seen through the end of the year.

In Little Rock in October, November, and December, temperatures steadily grow cooler on average with the change of the seasons. The average high in October in Little Rock is 75 degrees Fahrenheit, the average high in the capital city in November is 63 degrees Fahrenheit, and the average high in Little Rock in December is 52 degrees Fahrenheit. As the long-range calls for warmer-than-normal average temperatures, average highs in the next 3 months may be a bit warmer than these averages show.

Rainfall is needed across much of Arkansas. However, the next 3 months show a likelihood of drier-than-normal conditions continuing for the Natural State. The latest seasonal outlook through December shows that Arkansas, as well as much of the southwestern and southern U.S., could see less rainfall than usual. Areas in the Pacific Northwest and southern Florida are the only two spots likely to see wetter-than-normal conditions through December in the Continental U.S. This spells bad news, especially as drought continues in late September in Arkansas.

Average rainfall in Little Rock in October nearly reaches 4.5 inches, in November is a bit wetter at 4.72 inches, and even more precipitation by December with over 5 inches. With drought conditions worsening due to the dry season of June through September, this forecast will be one to watch through the end of the year. Usually, fall experiences many systems moving in from the west, providing rain chances. That’s why there’s on average an uptick in average rainfall in October, November, and December in Little Rock. But with the latest seasonal outlook through December, those systems may not be bringing the same level of moisture to Arkansas.

The seasonal forecasts shown here are probabilistic forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center. Much of this forecast is based on the forecast for El Niño Southern Oscillation Neutral (or ENSO-neutral) to transition to La Niña conditions in October, November, and December in the Pacific. A La Niña pattern for Arkansas generally indicates a warmer-than-normal and drier-than-normal pattern to set up shop for the Natural State.