Poll shows California redistricting measure leading, governor’s race up for grabs

A new Emerson College Polling survey commissioned by Nexstar Media for Inside California Politics finds that a slim majority of California voters support Proposition 50, a November ballot measure that would temporarily change congressional district maps in response to Texas doing the same.

The poll, conducted on Sept. 15-16, found that 51% of voters plan to vote “yes” on Prop. 50, while 34% say they’ll vote “no.” Another 15% are still undecided. Among voters who say they are very likely to vote, support rises to 55%.

“The first Emerson poll since the special election was officially declared to bring Proposition 50 to a vote finds over half of voters support the redistricting measure, up from 33% to 25% last month for a hypothetical redistricting proposal,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is leading the Prop 50 campaign, arguing it’s a necessary response to Republican-led gerrymandering efforts in Texas that aim to shift the balance of power in the U.S. House.

Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is campaigning against Prop. 50. When asked about his opposition, 66% of voters said it made no difference to them, 22% said it made them more likely to support the measure, while 12% said it made them less likely.

Looking ahead to the 2026 governor’s race, former Rep. Katie Porter leads with 16% support. Republican Steve Hilton follows with 10%, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco with 8%, and former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra with 5%. Thirty-eight percent of voters are undecided.

However, Politico reports that U.S. Senator Alex Padilla is being floated as a potential candidate.

When Sen. Padilla is added to the race, he receives 7% support, the survey found, while the other candidates’ numbers remain unchanged.

Other Poll Notes:

• Gov. Gavin Newsom’s approval rating stands at 46%, up two points from last month. President Donald Trump has a 35% approval rating and 57% disapproval.
• Voters say the economy is the most important issue facing the country (31%), followed by threats to democracy (28%), immigration (11%), crime (8%), healthcare (8%), and housing (5%).
• In California, the top issues are the economy (30%), housing affordability (22%), threats to democracy (13%), immigration (11%), and crime (9%).

The poll was conducted Sept. 15–16 among 1,000 registered voters. It has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Data was collected via text and online panels and weighted by demographic factors. The survey was funded by Emerson College.