Arkansas Storm Team Blog: A tropical system may form this week in the Atlantic

As of Monday afternoon, a disturbance in the open tropical Atlantic has a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression or a named storm in the next 2 days, and a high chance in the next 7 days. That’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center. This disturbance now has a broad area of low pressure associated with its disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

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This disturbance originates from a tropical wave that moved off the western coast of Africa to end last week. Over the weekend, the wave moved through an unfavorable environment for tropical development, and it remained an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. As of Monday, September 15, it has a broad area of low pressure associated with it, and while it’s still disorganized, it’s moving into a more favorable environment for tropical development. A tropical depression or tropical storm could form mid to late week as the disturbance moves west/northwesterly.

It’s been quiet over the last few weeks in the Atlantic, something that is often unusual but welcome during the most active period of the Atlantic hurricane season. So far, there has only been one hurricane in the Atlantic this year, and that was Hurricane Erin. The next name on the list this year in the Atlantic is Gabrielle.

The latest information on this disturbance will change as it continues to move into a more favorable environment. It’s far enough out to watch and see, but model guidance points to this wave moving north of the Caribbean into the western Atlantic. The Arkansas Storm Team will provide updates on its progress. In the meantime, ensure any information consumed on this disturbance comes from a trusted meteorological source.