Arkansas Storm Team Blog: Atlantic activity may be on the rise

After a long stretch of quiet weather in the Atlantic, some signs point toward a more active mid to late September in the Basin. As of Thursday, September 11, at 1 p.m. C.D.T., a tropical wave forecast to emerge from the coast of Africa on Friday has a 30% chance of tropical development in the next 7 days.

It’s forecast to move into a favorable environment this weekend and early next week as it moves to the west/northwest into the open tropical Atlantic. Once the tropical wave is southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, slow development is possible. Beyond that, there is much that is still up in the air about this new tropical wave. But there’s still plenty of time to watch this wave’s progress.

The latest tropical hazard outlook from September 17 to September 23 highlights a 20% chance of tropical activity (in pink above) and a 40% chance of tropical activity (in red above) in a path similar to what this wave is forecast to take in the open tropical Atlantic. The latest tropical hazard outlook for the 2-week range also shows a 20% chance of tropical activity in the northwestern Caribbean and the southern Gulf. This is merely something to keep noted rather than run with, hinting at something to keep an eye on. The low-chance hints that this area in the Caribbean and Gulf could be something from the Central American Gyre.

The Central American Gyre is an expansive, seasonal area of low pressure in Central America and southern North America. It’s known to sometimes spawn tropical systems and cause excessive rainfall. It can spark tropical systems in both the Atlantic Basin (generally the Caribbean and the Gulf) and the eastern Pacific.

The 3-week tropical hazard outlook, valid from September 24 to September 30, continues to highlight similar areas in the Gulf, the northwestern Caribbean, and the open tropical Atlantic. While the 3-week tropical hazard outlook shows 20% chances of tropical activity, indicating a low chance, it reinforces that these areas should be watched through the end of September. Models indicate that a few more tropical waves off the coast of Africa could be worth watching to end September.

The Atlantic Basin has only seen 6 named storms so far in 2025. Only one of those was a hurricane, and that was Erin. The next name on this year’s Atlantic list is Gabrielle.