(NEXSTAR) – Starbucks is serving pumpkin spice lattes. Kids are back to school. Halloween decor is out at stores. It’s only a matter of time before the next harbinger of fall arrives: the colorful changing of the leaves.

But only half of states are expected to see vibrant fall foliage this year, long-range weather experts at Accuweather predict.

“We expect vibrant colors across much of New England and the Midwest this autumn,” said Accuweather’s Paul Pastelok. The areas with more vibrant leaves had consistent rainfall in the spring and summer, contributing to healthy leaf growth. Plus, they need cool nights in the early fall, signaling the change in season that brings fall colors.

The aspen trees in Colorado and some of the Plains could also get pretty colors – though an early frost that’s possible in the Dakotas and Minnesota might cut the season short.

The eastern parts of North Carolina and South Carolina might also get lucky, but it depends on how the end of hurricane season plays out. If the states get high winds from a tropical storm, leaves could be blown off trees before they have a chance to change color.

While Midwestern and New England states look like they’ll get the brightest colors as the season changes, other parts of the country aren’t so lucky. Even places that depend on leaf peeping tourists, like the Smoky Mountains, are set to see a duller hue to their leaves.

“You can blame heavy rainfall and flooding this spring and summer for dull colors in the Appalachians and the Smoky Mountains. Insect and fungus damage can occur across southwest Pennsylvania, western Maryland and Virginia, West Virginia, Tennessee, extending to Mississippi and Alabama from heavy rain. This can lead to duller colors and early droppage of leaves,” Pastelok explained.

Meanwhile out West, heat, drought, and wildfires are to blame for a less vibrant outlook for fall 2025. “Stressed trees in the lower elevations could drop leaves a week or two earlier than average this autumn,” he said.

Once you start to see the color popping up, don’t delay, Pastelok advised. He expects peak leaf peeping season to be short this year.

An interactive map from SmokyMountains.com can help you predict when fall colors will peak near you. Generally speaking, states further north reach peak in late September and early October, while states further south can reach their peak as late as November. Elevation also plays a role in when leaves change.

Even with half of states expecting a duller leaf canopy this year, Accuweather’s outlook is still better this year than it was in 2024.