What effect will slowed hiring and rising unemployment have on Virginia elections?

RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — Does the latest jobs report spell trouble for Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in the Virginia governor’s race?

“It’s absolutely true that voters will blame the party in power for the economy, whether or not it’s fair to,” Randolph-Macon Political Science Professor Rich Meagher told 8News.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. added just 22,000 jobs in August, and the nation’s unemployment rate grew to 4.3% — its highest level since

2021.

The report comes as Virginia has seen a steady rise in its unemployment rate from 2.9% December 2024 to 3.6% as of Sept. 5.

“Everything that Winsome Earle-Sears does this year is gonna be harder,” Meagher said. “Every move that she makes, every ad that she tries to craft, every message she tries to put out there, it’s gonna be a little more sluggish, a little harder if the economy and the economic fortunes are against her.”

Meagher added that to counter that, Virginia Republicans should point to key economic investments in Virginia in recent weeks. He also said Republicans may try to make the election about other issues.

“You’ll notice that Winsome Earle-Sears is talking a lot these days about transgender policies,” Meagher said. “That is an effort to change the subject to point the arrow and the attention of voters away from things like the economy and cost of living towards issues where Earle-Sears thinks that she has a stronger shot at winning.”

Last week in Virginia, a little less than 2,400 people filed for unemployment insurance — a 30% increase compared to the same time in 2024.