Details: Brief chance of SEVERE storms Friday night

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – A cold front will bring a small window of opportunity for severe weather Friday night for the northern half of the ArkLaTex.  Large hail could be the biggest concern.  Then our attention will turn to a developing disturbance in the Atlantic.

Severe weather worries: Thunderstorms will develop late Friday afternoon and Friday evening along a cold front that will be approaching the ArkLaTex.  It appears that the best chance of seeing severe storms containing large hail up to quarter-sized will be a little to the north of the ArkLaTex in western and central Arkansas.  These storms could also produce wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph.  If we have any issues with wind and hail, it will probably be confined to areas north of the AR/LA state line. The storms will probably weaken late Friday night into Saturday as the front moves south further into the ArkLaTex.  

Tropical Worries:  We continue to watch a disturbance in the Atlantic that will probably become a tropical storm, and possibly a hurricane.  Yesterday, long-range models indicated that it could pose a threat to the Southeast US Coast during the middle of the month. 

There is a split in today’s morning model runs. Both the EURO and GFS have shown no consistency from run to run.  The EURO model shows that this system could threaten Puerto Rico and then dissipate as it moves northwest.  The GFS recurves the storm towards the SE US Coast.  With a large upper-level ridge expected over the middle of the country late next week, there is a chance that this storm could eventually move into the Gulf.  Stay tuned!

Weather Worry Index 2 out of 10:  Based on the latest information, I will keep today’s WWI at two out of ten for most of the area since the risk of severe weather is looking very low.  That number could increase for SE OK and SW AR if it becomes more apparent. Once the storms around the area wrap up late Saturday, we will begin an extended period of dry weather.  We will experience cooler temperatures this weekend and early next week, but the heat will return late next week.  Enjoy the nice fall teaser!