What’s behind Trump and the White House waffling on National Guard in Chicago?

President Donald Trump has been threatening to send the National Guard to Chicago to combat crime since shortly after he dispatched troops to Washington, D.C. in mid-August.

“We’re going in.  I didn’t say when.  We’re going in,” the president declared as recently as September 2.  

But one day later Trump and his team appeared to change their tune just a bit. 

“I want to go into Chicago and we have this incompetent governor that doesn’t want us,” Trump told reporters.  “We’re making the determination now: Do we go to Chicago or do we go to a place like New Orleans where we have a great governor who wants us to come in.”

Vice President JD Vance also appeared to retreat from the imminent threat of a federal troop mobilization on Wednesday.

“There are no immediate plans; but the president has said he has the legal authority to protect American citizens whether that’s in Chicago or Washington DC,” he said.

So what changed?

A federal judge ruled Trump’s use of the National Guard in Los Angeles violates the Posse Comitatus Act, which specifically outlines the circumstances in which military troops can be used as a police force on U.S. soil. While the judge didn’t order the remaining National Guard members in California to stand-down he did forbid them from engaging in law enforcement activity.   

The White House said it will appeal the decision.

Illinois’ democratic governor and attorney general have said they would immediately file a lawsuit if Trump sends the military to Chicago. That might expedite a ruling that could, in theory, strip the president of his ability to deploy troops in the U.S. unilaterally.

If Trump sends the National Guard to New Orleans – a city with a far higher violent crime rate than Chicago – Louisiana’s republican governor has said he would welcome their arrival.  It would also give Trump the appearance of a strong crackdown on crime in a blue city using the cover of a red state governor requesting the help.

Regardless of the president’s decision, Chicago is still bracing for a surge in immigration arrests in the coming days.  White House border czar previously said he envisioned using the National Guard to support ICE arrests.