By rssfeeds-admin 
The numbers: A city in decline—of crime
According to the latest data from the Chicago Police Department and city officials, violent crime in Chicago has dropped significantly in 2025:
- Homicides are down 32% year-to-date, with 240 recorded through July, putting the city on track for fewer than 500 homicides this year—the lowest in six years.
- Shooting incidents have decreased by 37%, with 865 reported through July.
- Robberies are down 31.9%, and vehicular hijackings have plummeted by 49%.
- Overall violent crime has declined 21.6%, and total crime complaints are down 13% compared to 20241.
Mayor Brandon Johnson’s administration attributes these improvements to a holistic approach to public safety, including expanded youth employment, increased mental health crisis response teams, and stronger partnerships with community violence intervention groups.
Trump’s take: A city in crisis
Despite improvements, President Trump has doubled down on his portrayal of Chicago as a lawless zone.
Over Labor Day weekend, 54 people were reportedly shot, including eight fatalities, prompting Trump to declare on Truth Social that, “Chicago is the worst and most dangerous city in the World, by far… I will solve the crime problem fast, just like I did in DC.”
He has hinted at sending in the National Guard, a move that Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Mayor Johnson have strongly opposed, citing possible legal limitations and the city’s improving crime metrics.
The reality: A tale of two Chicagos
While the overall trends are encouraging, disparities remain. Black residents are still 22 times more likely to be homicide victims than white residents, and certain neighborhoods experience homicide rates 68 times higher than others.
Also, the lethality of shootings—measured by fatalities per incident—has increased 44.9% since 2010, suggesting that while shootings are less frequent, they are more deadly.
How Chicago compares to the nation
Chicago’s crime trends mirror national patterns, but the city still stands out in key areas.
| Crime Type | Chicago (2025) | National Average (2025) | Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homicide Rate | 16.7 per 100,000 residents (estimate based on actual homicides through August) | 6.5 per 100,000 (avg. of 30 cities) | Higher than average |
| Violent Crime Rate | 5.38 per 1,000 residents | 4.0 per 1,000 (avg. of 42 cities) | Slightly higher |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | Down 26% in Chicago | Down 25% nationally | Comparable |
| Robbery | Down 34% in Chicago | Down 20% nationally | Better than average |
| Aggravated Assault | Down 13% in Chicago | Down 10% nationally | Slightly better |
| Property Crime Overall | Down 13% in Chicago | Mixed trends nationally | Generally aligned |
Is Trump right?
If one looks only at isolated weekend incidents and the number of killings, Trump’s cries are more than justified. Hundreds of homicides per year is a lot. But Chicago does not lead the nation.
As of mid-2025, Chicago ranks seventh among major U.S. cities in homicide rate, with 28.7 homicides per 100,000 residents. That figure comes fom a mid-year report based on 394 homicides recorded through June and a city population of approximately 2.75 million.
Cities like St. Louis (87.2), Baltimore (58.1), New Orleans (52.3), and Detroit (49.7) all report higher murder rates.
Even smaller cities such as Cleveland and Memphis surpass Chicago in per-capita killings. While Chicago’s total number of homicides is high due to its large population, its rate of killings per capita places it out of contention as the “murder capital.”
According to data, as of 2025, St. Louis, Missouri holds the unfortunate title of the most dangerous city in the United States in terms of homicides.
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