Context on White House claims on Chicago crime

CHICAGO (WGN) — There’s a quote attributed to Mark Twain that says “there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”

Keep that in mind when you hear people talking about crime stats. That’s because there are many ways to measure public safety.

“We’ve been seeing the governor of Illinois parading out there saying that ‘there’s nothing wrong with Chicago. It’s a great place to live. There’s no crime there.’” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. “He doesn’t need president Trump’s help, while I think the residents of Chicago begged to differ and the statistics beg to differ.”

Gov. JB Pritzker (D-Illinois), Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and other democrats have by no means claimed to have solved the crime problem.

What they say is Chicago has made tremendous progress.

And that is true. In the 1990’s, Chicago often saw more than 900 murders per year.

After reaching the lowest level in decades, the number spiked during the pandemic, and was at 573 last year.  

It’s on track to be even lower this year.

Here’s another White House claim: “Chicago’s murder rate per capita was three times higher than Los Angeles, and nearly five times higher than New York City.”

This claim ignores the reality that you have a far higher chance of actually being murdered — as measured by the murder rate — elsewhere.

Axios crunched the numbers and found 13 of the 20 US Cities with the highest murder rates were in Republican run states, some with democratic mayors. Chicago didn’t even crack the top 10.

Then, the White House press secretary suggested — without evidence — the numbers may be rigged.

“Chicago has also, just like DC, come under scrutiny over discrepancies,” Leavitt said. “And it’s homicide data reporting. So as bad as these numbers are, perhaps they are even worse.”

But the FBI is also in the crime stat business.

When it comes to the overall rate of violent crime: Chicago comes in twenty-ninth in the nation.

Still, the White House labels Chicago a crime-ridden hell-hole.

“This is Gov. Pritzker’s legacy. He should pick up the phone and call this president, who would be more than happy to do right by law abiding American residents in the city of Chicago,” Leavitt said.

Statistics are little comfort if you or someone you love has been a victim or if you fear leaving your home.

Gov. JB Pritzker responded to the White House press secretary’s crime claims by saying if President Trump was interested in helping crackdown on crime, he’d focus on red states.   

“Of the 20 states that have the biggest crime problem, 13 of them are red states controlled by republican governors,” Pritzker said. “Why is he choosing that over going after a state, a red state that voted for him, rather than a blue state that didn’t vote for him, we know and understand why. He is a partisan. He is somebody that believes in attacking people that didn’t vote for him.”

More information:
Chicago Police comp stat
Chicago violence reduction dashboard