Carter & Kat’s Weather Chat: Coincidence or Pattern? Uncovering the fair’s rainy tradition

In this week’s Carter & Kat’s Weather Chat, Meteorologists Katalina Bell and Carter Vandrasik broke down the science behind the showers, looking at whether the West Texas Fair & Rodeo really has a rainy streak.

At first, Kat admits she didn’t believe the saying. But after looking at the data, she was surprised: it has rained 21 out of the past 25 years at the fair.

“So in my head, I was like, no, no, no, that’s not true. It’s not true whatnot. I was a little humbled by some of the Big Country residents, and that’s okay, but there is a reason why the rain comes into town when the fair comes into town,” Kat explained.

The timing may explain it. The fair happens in mid-September, when the first fall cold fronts and other weather systems usually start moving through. That, combined with tropical moisture from the Gulf during peak hurricane season, often boosts rain chances.

Carter agreed, saying at first he brushed it off, too.

“When I got here, it was dry. Hot and dry. Every forecast, hot and dry. Copy and paste. No changes whatsoever,” Carter said. “But looking at it and looking at the science behind it, it makes sense. We’re dealing with certain patterns where we see the same front system move in the same amount of humidity and moisture, which is really having an impact on that rainfall as well, not to mention that we are in prime tropical season right now, so we are seeing more high levels of moisture come from the Gulf all the way up and still impacting us here in the Abilene area.”

So, what about this year’s fair? Carter says the timing looks familiar.

“Right now we’re, we’re looking at right in that forecast. This weekend, we’re starting another pattern. It could feel like fall temperatures and cool down, bringing more rain back in the forecast,” Carter shared.

Long-term climate patterns like El Niño and La Niña also factor in, sometimes complicating the picture. Kat noted that while the Farmer’s Almanac predicts a cooler, wetter winter, La Niña typically brings drier, warmer conditions. So where’s the middle ground?

“Right now, I don’t think it’s going to be as cold as the Farmer’s Almanac says it’s going to be. But yeah, so El Niño and La Niña, if you want to remember it or not, it’s a complex, pretty broad deal that even meteorologists themselves… like it makes my head hurt,” Kat said. “Just because it says La Nina doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to follow that pattern too.”

Still, the historic trend is clear: when the fair comes to town, odds are good that the rain isn’t far behind.