Is Virginia’s economy in trouble?

RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — A new forecast from The Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia (UVA) shows Virginia’s economy could be in trouble. 

“Obviously, for businesses, that means maybe [a] tougher sales environment where people are not, maybe, willing to spend as much money,” Eric Scorsone, Executive Director of the Weldon Cooper Center, told reporters. 

The Weldon Cooper Center projects that Virginia will lose a net total of 11,700 jobs in 2025, before job growth flattens in 2026, with Virginia gaining only a net total of 300 jobs.

Scorsone said the contracting job market could lead to people looking for work outside of Virginia. 

“If Virginia is flat or negative when the other states aren’t, you’re gonna have more people moving to other states, probably, or people graduating from UVA, or Tech, and decide to go find jobs somewhere else,” Scorsone said. 

Meanwhile, Virginia’s unemployment rate is also projected to increase from its current 3.6% to 4.7% in 2026, something economists say could lead to companies investing less in Virginia. 

“Because simply they don’t expect the economy to be so strong, people willing to spending so much money, and so they might start postponing investment,” said João Ferreira, an economist at the Weldon Cooper Center. 

The Weldon Cooper Center says it plans to release another forecast based on updated data later this year.