Currently, there is a 50% chance this develops into a tropical system as the wave moves westward towards the Caribbean Sea. This wave should take a similar path to Erin but could track a little further south. The further south the disturbance is able to move could increase the chance it reaches the Gulf.
The forecast is highly uncertain at this time but global models like the GFS and Euro show a weak system that lifts northward near the Bahamas and remains in the western Atlantic next week.
The next name on the list is Fernand.
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