Tropical Storm Erin struggling, but forecast to become Category 3 hurricane by Sunday

RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) – Due to cooler ocean temperatures and Saharan dust, Tropical Storm Erin hasn’t changed much in intensity since the National Hurricane Center’s initial advisory on the storm on Monday morning.

The system is a 45-mile-per-hour tropical storm, moving quickly off to the west at 22 miles per hour, as of the 5 p.m. advisory from the NHC Tuesday. It will remain a tropical storm until at least late Thursday or early Friday, when it is forecast to become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

The Hurricane Center still expects Erin to become at least a Category 3 hurricane by Sunday.

Erin is struggling because of two primary reasons. The first is cooler Atlantic water temperatures in the eastern part of the basin. With water temperatures in the upper-70s, those aren’t warm enough to strengthen Erin into a hurricane.

In addition, Erin has been ingesting Saharan dust and dry air into its core over the past day or so, which significantly hinders its ability to strengthen. Until Erin moves farther west, towards the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, that dry air and dust will temper Erin’s ability to strengthen, especially at a faster pace.

However, once the weekend rolls around, when Erin gets into the southwest Atlantic, warm water, low shear and high relative humidity will all act to enhance Erin into the season’s first major hurricane.

“There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts, if any, might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week,” the National Hurricane Center wrote in its Tuesday morning update.

As of Tuesday, Erin’s projected path past Sunday is too soon to determine. Stay with the CBS17 Storm Team as we keep you up to date on Erin’s path