T.S. Erin forms & expected to become major hurricane

SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – Last week, models were indicating that we would probably see a strong disturbance come off of Africa and start to develop over the Atlantic.  That has happened, and today, NHC began issuing advisories for Tropical Storm Erin.  Currently, there is good model agreement on where Erin could go.

Where will Erin go? Last week, models were very inconsistent on where Erin would go once it developed.  During the weekend, that changed.  There is now good model agreement indicating that Erin will continue to move west at a rather rapid pace.  That is illustrated in the latest NHC forecast for the storm.  Sometime this weekend, we will probably see a gradual turn toward the northwest.  This turn will be critical in keeping the storm out of the Gulf.  Currently, it appears that the storm will eventually turn toward the north and then northeast.  As of right now, it is looking likely that the storm will not directly impact the US coast.  Let’s hope that turns out to be true.  The National Hurricane Center forecast shows Erin becoming the first major hurricane of the season.   

Severe weather worries:  Here at home, scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the next several days.  Most of the activity will occur in the late afternoon and early evening hours.  While a few storms could produce some strong wind gusts, severe weather issues are unlikely.  If we see any, they will be very isolated.  If you are lucky enough to get some rain, it’s possible that you could see more than ½”.  Many locations could stay dry this week.

Weather Worry Index for the next 10 days:  2 out of 10: Today’s WWI for the next ten days will remain at 2 out of 10.  Heat could become a concern again late this week.  Stay tuned.